Tag Archives: China

Elon Is Getting His Ass Handed To Him

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From Reuters by way of Yahoo Finance.

He’s such a sympathetic character, you have to feel sorry for him, don’t you?

“In the first 18 hours after the YU7 went on sale, Xiaomi received some 240,000 orders that it considers locked in, with buyers having paid either a hefty deposit for ready-to-deliver cars or a smaller deposit for cars still to be made.

. . . As domestic rivals increasingly win over Chinese consumers with snazzy new features, Tesla’s share of the Chinese EV market has fallen from a peak of 15% in 2020 to 10% last year and then again to 7.6% for the first five months of 2025.

Citi analysts said in a note to clients that it may have to cut prices further, offer its ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) driver assistance software for free and offer more financing incentives if it is to compete successfully with Xiaomi.”

Postscript.

A Christian Nation?

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From the NYT.

“Now, Supreme Court justices have become caught up in the debate over whether America is a Christian nation. While Justice Alito is hardly openly championing these views, he is embracing language and symbolism that line up with a much broader movement pushing back against the declining power of Christianity as a majority religion in America.

The country has grown more ethnically diverse and the share of American adults who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated has risen steadily over the past decade. Still, a 2022 report from the Pew Research Center found that more than four in 10 adults believed America should be a ‘Christian nation.'”

Guess that means almost 6 in 10 grasp the profound difference between being a country with many Christians and being a “Christian country”.

And I can’t help but wonder if the “4 in 10” crowd has any real understanding of the persecution experienced by the earliest Christians, let alone believers in places like China and North Korea.

$817k Per Job

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From The New York Times:

“Former President Donald J. Trump is planning an aggressive expansion of his first-term efforts to upend America’s trade policies if he returns to power in 2025 — including imposing a new tax on “most imported goods” that would risk alienating allies and igniting a global trade war.”

The Former Guy is such a successful businessperson, and so rich, we should probably just trust that he knows what he’s doing.

The New York Times has the temerity to disagree with my assessment. They write:

“Evaluating the merits of Mr. Trump’s trade vision is complex because there could be multiple ripple effects, and he is seeking long-term changes. But many economic studies concluded that the tariffs he imposed as president cost American society more than the benefits they produced.

Research from economists at the Federal Reserve and the University of Chicago found that tariffs Mr. Trump imposed on washing machines in 2018 created about 1,800 jobs while raising the median prices consumers paid for new washers and dryers by $86 and $92 per unit. That spending added up to about $817,000 per job.”

Wait a minute. If the Former Guy is mistaken about tariffs, what else might he be getting wrong?

Two Economies

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In the (dis)United States, despite a bevy of positive economic indicators, the President’s approval rating hovers around 38%. I thought it was all about the economy, but what do I know.

Inflation has moderated, but the cost of housing—whether buying a home or renting an apartment or home—is still too damn high. Positive economic data isn’t making people feel any better about their economic prospects.

In fact, there are two economies. One consisting of the “new aristocracy”, or top 10%, who have only grown more wealthy in recent years. And the other, the 90% doing everything they can to tread water. In actuality, a rising tide doesn’t lift all boats, just ten percent of them.

I can’t pontificate on economic matters in any more detail than that, because as a part of the new aristocracy, I’m out of touch with most people.

It would be unbecoming to be any more specific about my economic status, but suffice to say, as this picture illustrates so convincingly, the Biden economy has been very good to me.

The Only AAPL Warning Sign That Really Freaks Me Out

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Apple’s shares slipped more than 3% in after-hours trading following last Thursday’s earnings call. Even worser, AAPL was also down Friday despite the fact that the broader market surged both Thursday and Friday.

When it comes to AAPL, I happily and knowingly break conventional personal finance wisdom that says never have more than 5% of your total invested assets in any individual stock.

Over the last fifteen years, I’ve learned to chuckle at the doubters. Chuckleheads all.

But what if I am right, until I am wrong? Maybe a little humility is in order? Maybe AAPL isn’t always going to make the personal tech of choice? If so, maybe I should pay attention to the “headwinds”.

The Wall Street Journal on Apple:

“. . . the stock already had been underperforming its big tech peers lately. Concerns were mounting over the new iPhone cycle and longer-term issues like the health of the China market and the company’s lucrative relationship with Google, which pays Apple billions of dollars every year to be the default search engine on the iPhone and other devices. That relationship is at the center of an antitrust trial against Google that has now lasted two months.

The case is a long way from resolution. China, however, is a more pressing issue. Apple’s revenue for its Greater China segment fell nearly 3% year over year compared with a 6% rise in last year’s fiscal fourth quarter. That brought China’s contribution to Apple’s total revenue to its lowest point in nearly three years. . . . Data from market research firm Counterpoint suggests the iPhone has lost momentum in China to a newly resurgent Huawei, though.”

Also, what about the anecdotal? A year ago the family had the nerve to suggest Spotify was better than Apple Music. Eventually, to save money by partnering with the GalPal, I caved and gave it a whirl. And you know what, don’t tell them, but they were right.

In related news, the sensor on the back of my Apple watch cracked. It still mostly works (no sleep data, heart rate, etc.), but I’m thinking of replacing it. And I’m leaning towards a Garmin Venu 3 or Garmin 265 because one charge lasts at least one week. How to make sense of the masses preference for Apple’s for-shits battery life? By acknowledging the company’s marketing genius.

But I digress. Back to the one, mother and father of all, AAPL warning signs. And I quote the recent CNBC headline that stopped me in my Apple track.

Jim Cramer lauds Apple’s ‘lifetime customer,’ says analysts are too negative on the company.

Harvard educated Jim Cramer is the single worst “stock guru” in the mainstream media. Yes, his television persona attracts eyeballs, but any primate throwing darts at a stock chart would outperform him.

John Oliver said it better than I ever could, “Cramer is the only person who could look you in the eye and say you are going to die tomorrow, and give you an immediate sense of calm knowing that you’re going to live for another 50 years.”

Hard to top that, but Ian Krietzberg says Cramer has been wrong so often “that Matthew Tuttle, the CEO and investment lead of Tuttle Capital Management, decided to create an ETF designed to short Jim Cramer.”

Tuttle for the win.

Maybe I should sell some AAPL and use the proceeds to buy an equal amount of SJIM.

China Is Stirring

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Try, if you can, to imagine the most extreme covid restrictions you experienced in 2020 lasting for over 2.5 years. Until now, China’s citizens have decided life in lockdown is preferable to being caught protesting the restrictions.

Except for North Korea, every populace, Iran and China included, has their limits. The reporting and pictures coming out of China are riveting.

I especially like how they’re using sarcasm. From the New York Times:

“When a police officer told people to stop chanting for an end to lockdowns, the crowd quickly pivoted. ‘Continue lockdowns!’ they chanted, in an echo of the sarcasm that had spread online in recent days, as people shared overblown praise for the government to protest censorship. ‘I want to do Covid tests!'”

People like me, with a built-in bias for democracy, are almost always disappointed by flickers of popular protest that are routinely squelched by the state.

That history won’t stop me from rooting for the underdogs, for sarcasm, and radical political change.

Related.

A Truly Modern Emperor

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Subtitle: When You Fall Out Of Favor In The Chinese Communist Party

People swear off Twitter all the time, thinking it’s a complete waste of time, but it all depends on being very selective about who you follow. This Yang Zhang tweet, the first of many in the thread, is Twitter at its absolute best. It provides an incredible window into the CCP. Similarly, some Russian intellectuals are using Twitter to provide fascinating windows into Russian’s reactions to their government’s war.

Be careful not to paint all social media with too broad a brush.