Wrong, Wrong, Wrong

After a bit more lively Michigan-Ohio State second half, and a relatively low-scoring Apple Cup, some PressingPausers had the audacity to call my football acumen into question. Dare we ask, maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about?

I’m glad I was wrong about the fate of the hostages. Granted, those released so far are just a fraction of the total, but I was afraid all of them were going to be killed. Dare we ask, are the humble blogger’s geopolitical smarts right up there with his football perspicacity?

Being so young-in-spirit and healthy, I figured why get jabbed this fall. So now that I’m sick, dare we consider the fact that my medical science/public health aptitude leaves a lot to be desired?

Booster Postscript

I knew there was real downside wading into the vax debate, but I didn’t expect a PressingPauser to spring into action with a reasoned rebuttal.

A decidedly non-knuckle head Pressing Pauser wrote to me, “This material cut and pasted below is from NPR on how long the protection lasts.  You seem to have addressed only the mild symptom category,  not the risk of severe responses.  I see no suggestion that anyone should or would get this shot ‘every 2 months.’  As a renowned blogger with tremendous influence over many many readers (well, maybe a few), you should consider the fact that you and your ‘non-knucklehead recently retired doctor friend’ may have cherry picked a bit.

From NPR—How long will protection last?

“You’ll get a boost in immunity within about two weeks after getting the shot that could reduce your risk of coming down with COVID – and that protection will likely last for a few months. It should also make you more likely to get a more mild case if you do get sick.

The boost in protection against severe disease – the kind of scary symptoms that can send you to the hospital – should last a lot longer. Exactly how long depends on a variety of factors including your immune system, your health, your age and your prior exposures to both the vaccines and infections. But for many people, the hope is the COVID shots can be annual, like flu shots.

“It will markedly increase your protection against getting very sick for about a year or so,” says Dr. Robert Wachter, professor and chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California San Francisco.”

The point is so well taken, I will in all likelihood get the new jab. Thanks to the reader for taking the time to deepen the discussion. That said, comparing me to Kyrie Irving was totally uncalled for. Except for the ball handling skills.

  

To Boost or Not To Boost?

Some of my knucklehead friends think they’re world renowned epidemiologists. I’m going to continue to ignore their opposing theories and advice in favor of my non-knucklehead, recently retired doctor friend, who recently texted me this:

“The original vaccine was extremely effective. It prevented infection 94% of the time. However, the virus mutated, and it no longer prevents infection, and only mildly effective at preventing severe illness , and then for only a short time.

I believe in vaccines. I have gotten all my covid vaccines early, if anything, but the data no longer supports the vaccine.

Many colds are caused by different coronaviruses, and we’ve tried for years to make a cold vaccine. It’s never worked. The coronavirus mutates too quickly. Even the newest booster is outdated before it is being released. That strain disappeared months ago. We are 2 to 3 versions past that strain. One of the new strains has over 30 new mutations. It is unlikely to respond well to the new booster for the few 2 months you get mild protection against severe illness. Are you going to get a new booster every 2 months for minimal protection?”

I am not.

On Omicron

Katelyn Jetelina concludes her update this way:

“There’s a good chance Omicron will outcompete Delta in the United States. This coupled this with the high unvaccinated rate and lab data showing partial vaccine immunity will result in a substantial Winter wave. The rate of breakthrough cases will be higher, but I’m hopeful that boosters will largely keep people out of the hospital.

We’re all exhausted. The scientists. The healthcare workers. The parents. The pharmacists. The teachers. Everyone. But the virus isn’t. And it won’t be until we all take it seriously. Wear a good mask. Ventilate spaces. Test, test, test. And, for the love of all things, go get your vaccine and/or booster.”

Joe With The Technical Knockout

When told The Former Guy was infected with the ‘rona during one of their debates, President Biden said the one thing a narcissist NEVER wants to hear, “I don’t think about the former president.”

Given his daily “To Do” list, I believe Joe. Everyone else, the January 6th commission and professional historians aside, take note.

Hygiene Theater

Derek Thompson with a winning pan’ concept.

“Six months ago, I wrote that Americans had embraced a backwards view of the coronavirus. Too many people imagined the fight against COVID-19 as a land war to be waged with sudsy hand-to-hand combat against grimy surfaces. Meanwhile, the science suggested we should be focused on an aerial strategy. The virus spreads most efficiently through the air via the spittle spray that we emit when we exhale—especially when we cough, talk loudly, sing, or exercise. I called this conceptual error, and the bonanza of pointless power-scrubbing that it had inspired, ‘hygiene theater.'”

Note to the Briggs Y pool lifeguards. . . you can prob chill with the hygiene theater.

How Many Have Died?

Like everything else in the (dis)United States, the Covid-19 death toll has been politicized. Many conservatives claim the death totals have been exaggerated by liberals intent on weakening Trump, which recent events prove, he’s fully capable of doing himself.

One of the more conservative newspapers in the country has completed a comprehensive study of the worldwide death toll. Their conclusion:

“To better understand the pandemic’s global toll, the Journal compiled the most recent available data on deaths from all causes from countries with available records. These countries together account for roughly one-quarter of the world’s population but about three-quarters of all reported deaths from Covid-19 through late last year.

The tally found more than 821,000 additional deaths that aren’t accounted for in governments’ official Covid-19 death counts.”

Not the recorded death count of 2 million, 2.8 million. Because it’s the Wall Street Journal, I’m sure the death count deniers’ false claims will cease and we’ll see a corresponding rise in empathy for the deceased and their families.

Youyang Gu Is Back

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning. Go to your state for an even deeper, more interesting dive.

One of YG’s endearing quirks is that, despite flying solo, he uses the “we” pronoun when explaining his methodology. Makes sense though since his brain power is at least 10x most peoples.

When asked what prompted his return he said, “I saw too many bad takes on what’s happening.”

Follow him on Twitter at @youyanggu.