If you’re like me, the worse Trump does, the better you feel about the country’s future. So despite it being gray outside, I woke up Saturday a bit more bullish about things. But thanks to John Cassidy of The New Yorker for the proverbial, political science slap in the face:
“Another argument you hear from Trump supporters, and even from some nervous Democrats, is that the polls might be understating his chances. That could be the case if pollsters are systematically underestimating the likely turnout among groups who like Trump, or they are systematically overestimating the likely turnout among groups supportive of Clinton, or both. It’s also conceivable that some Trump voters are reluctant to reveal their support for him to pollsters. These sorts of things can happen. Look at Brexit. Most of the polls in Britain got that result wrong, partly because their assumptions about turnout turned out to be mistaken.”
Recognize most people watching have a built-in wariness of anyone wanting to “run” the country because the ambition needed to apply for the job is mind boggling. Many wonder, what kind of person thinks they’re qualified to lead the country? Most, understandably conclude, only a serious ego-maniac. Therein lies the challenge. Ego-maniacs make poor leaders because effective leadership requires humility and the ability to respect and work with diverse groups of people.
Broad policy ideas are important, but the details are likely to be forgotten in a few days time. Don’t trot out any preplanned lines that you hope are especially memorable because the most successful one-liners are always a mix of spontaneity and authenticity. If you’re focused and lucky, the spirit of spontaneous, authentic, memorable lines may strike you at some point. That’s the best you can hope for.
To gain respect of voters, choose self respect over political science, and refrain from counter-punching when attacked. Convey a sense of gratitude for the opportunity to serve the nation.
Present the most positive vision for the country and you’ll win the debate. More specifically, present the most convincing plan to continue closing the gap between our stated ideals and challenging realities and you’ll win. Convince voters you have the necessary mix of character, confidence, and humility to improve people’s quality of life, and you’ll win.
I’ll be watching.