The Future Is Bright

Posted on February 14, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

Thanks to my fam for hijacking the humble blog this weekend. . . the Good Wife’s idea, the daughters’ execution. After editing the beginning of the post, youngest said to eldest, “It’s kinda creepy how well you mimic dad’s writing voice.”

There are an overwhelming number of intractable problems in the world. You being stuck with me as primary author again. A slow walk to possible war in Ukraine. Environmental degradation. Global poverty. Pandemic induced loneliness and related mental health challenges. Endless Super Bowl crypto commercials.

But there’s at least one glimmer of hope that has not been reported widely enough.

Rotterdam bridge to be dismantled so Jeff Bezos’ yacht can pass through.

De_Hef-e1643791059281

From DutchNews:

“Bezos’ three-masted yacht is being built by the Oceano shipyard in Alblasserdam but is too big to pass under the bridge when the central section is raised to its full height. Now Oceano and Bezos have approached the council about temporarily dismantling the bridge at their cost. According to Rijnmond, city officials are prepared to take that step, despite the opposition of local history experts and others.”

How wonderful that Bezos’ yacht will not be stuck in Alblasserdam. It makes you wonder what else is possible when city councils and others truly commit to the greater good.

Postscript: A reader just asked, “Is that sarcasm?” YES.

Can Sound Judgement Under Pressure Be Taught?

Posted on February 9, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

In college, in “The Sociology of Education” more specifically, I found “The Gospel According to the Harvard Business School” a fascinating read. As a result, this article caught my eye, “What is Harvard Business School’s Secret Sauce“?

The author asks whether or not sound judgement under pressure can be taught. The Harvard Business School definitely thinks so. How?

“Students study about 500 cases during their two years at the school. . .”

Case studies are one of my all-time fave teaching methods, but I have to believe students reach a point of diminishing returns well before Case #500. I suspect fewer, more in-depth cases would yield better results.

Has the HBS or anyone else studied their graduates’ judgement relative to other non-HBS grads? How would one create a baseline of HBS grads pre-HBS judgement under pressure from which to compare? More generally, how would one conduct such studies?

Messy at best.

In other Harvard news.

Not Proof Of The American Dream

Posted on February 2, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

The best thing you’ll read today. “I Am Not Proof of the American Dream”. As a general policy, if Tara Westover writes something, you should read it.

Upon receiving a $4,000 Pell Grant, Westover writes:

“In those desperate years a few thousand dollars was enough to alter the whole course of my life. It contained a universe. It allowed me to experience for the first time what I now know to be the most powerful advantage of money, which is the ability to think of things besides money. That’s what money does. It frees your mind for living.”

How on earth does the Right, with their knee-jerk complaints of Big Government waste and social program dependency make sense of the Tara Westovers of the world?

How I Game Stock Market Corrections

Posted on January 26, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

A blip in the spring of 2020 aside, U.S. markets have steadily risen for 12 years*. So a lot of younger investors are panicking this week because they’re totally unaccustomed to market volatility. History tells us many of these investors will sell at the exact wrong time. Actually, history tells us many investors of all ages and experience will sell at the exact wrong time. Instead, right now investors should be buying low cost index funds with all the coins they can find under their sofa cushions.

Vanguard has an excellent forum of savvy investors who help one another with investing decisions and with staying the course. It’s a model on-line forum because it’s moderated so well. You don’t have to be a Vanguard client to lurk (like me) or even participate.

This morning on the forum participants are reminding one another of the best way to deal with market volatility and downturns more specifically—turn off the t.v., stop reading the business news, and only check investment balances one or two times a year.

Solid advice, that I don’t follow, even remotely. As per usual, I’m consuming a lot of business news this week and I check my investment balances every Friday**. And yet, despite all the noise I consciously subject myself to, it has no effect on my “buy and hold” self discipline. Why is that?

Maybe it’s because I have devised a mind game that enables me to blunt the general panic of others. Here’s how it works. Let’s say we have $500k saved for retirement, and that $500k is equally divided between stocks and bonds. When I look at the stock side of my net worth statement, I don’t see $250k. Instead, I pre-plan for a 50% correction in the stock market. Put differently, I build it in in advance, so instead of seeing the actual $250k, I see a range of $125k to $250k. Since bonds rarely loose more than a few percentage points any given year, I don’t engage in the same mental gymnastics on that side of things.

So given our hypothetical starting point, I would think of my net worth as somewhere between $375k (assuming a 50% correction in stocks) and $500k. Like an athlete, I visualize the possible, no make that probable downturn of the market, so that when it happens, I roll with it. Despite actively watching investors panic.

As it turns out, the stock market roller coaster is rising today, so the S&P 500 is down all of 5+% for the year. So in our scenario, our current net worth is approximately $487k (250k – 5+% = 237k in stocks + 250k in bonds). $487k looks and feels pretty darn good give our $375k floor. Removing any need for panic selling.

My advice to newer investors is to know that the correction could get A LOT worse. My suggestion, do both/and, tune out the noise and mentally prep for a real, live, sustained bear market.

*in large part, thanks to the Federal Reserve

**I aspire to do it monthly

We Know the Real Cause of the Crisis in Our Hospitals.

Posted on January 20, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

It’s greed. That’s the headline of this powerful six and a half minute long New York Times documentary. I concede, given the Gray Lady’s size and stature, it’s important to read and/or view her with a certain skepticism, but as this short video illustrates, the “paper of record” continues to produce a lot of outstanding journalism.

When it comes to the New York Times, I am in the habit of reading the top “reader picks” comments. At present, this video has generated 1,562 comments. Here’s a portion of the top rated one, from someone living outside the (dis)United States:

“Hey, your politicians passed and signed federal law 9 years ago to allow private equity (wall street) to buy and own healthcare systems and physician groups. Prior to that it was illegal. Now private equity is the largest employer of emergency room physicians in America and as owners of healthcare system employees many many doctors and nurses of all specialties. Private equity is buy a company reduce costs increase profit and sell it in 5-7 years. That is who owns many of your doctors and hospitals. Federal law was changed to allow that to happen and where was the objection from the people. My guess probably almost no one knew. How funny to watch your media avoid these topics when they happen and fill it with the latest on the celebrity politicians over there.”

The nurses in the video confirm that our fetishization of corporations is the root cause of their untenable work conditions. And the reason people admitted to U.S. hospitals often receive poor care.

It reminds me of how powerfully later seasons of “Orange Is The New Black” depicts the negative consequences of private prisons.

Because we’re complexity adverse, we don’t connect dots, like our “avoid taxes at all costs” myopia and our near religious beliefs in “free” markets. Those neoliberal pillars are as solid as they’ve ever been. To question them is to be labelled a “socialist”.

In the end, we have the public health system we deserve. A public health system that an increasing percentage of nurses don’t want anything to do with.

Income Inequality—17th Century Style

Posted on January 11, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

From my current read, “Enemy of All Mankind: A True Story of Piracy, Power, and History’s First Global Manhunt” by Steven Johnson.

I don’t want to imagine. I don’t do well on open water, I’m tallish, and I crave solitude. My absolute worst nightmare.

Electronic Wolves

Posted on January 7, 2022 by Ron Byrnes

This receipt was made up by some electronic wolves that read my in-laws’ obituaries. Neither my mother or father-in-law were capable of ordering anything on-line on October 10th, the alleged date of sale. Nor would they have ever paid $50 for a t-shirt, let alone $150 for 3.

Their target is probably the recently widowed who may be just the right mix of senile and afraid. They read they were from Two Harbors near Duluth. Then they went on-line and found the most popular attractions in the area within seconds. Then they fabricated the receipt, dropped it in the mail, and waited to see if they got anyone on the line. No doubt they do sometimes.

I give them a “C” for the quality of the receipt. It’s exquisite except for the obvious pricing overreach for which I’m marking down two grades.

I don’t know how to catch these lowlifes, but assuming they are caught eventually, what’s an appropriate punishment? Life without any chance of parole?