Tag Archives: AAPL

Money, Money, Money

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The O’Jays > Abba, but I digress.

I dig this story, “Gift to help cover tuition for students in lab medicine” for a few reasons. Mostly because the donors wanted to remain anonymous. Such a refreshing choice in this “look at me” day and age. I also like how targeted and thought out the gift is. There will surely be positive ripple effects. And of course, the recipients’ gratitude is heartwarming.

Then there’s this. “Michael and Susan Dell donate $6.25 billion to encourage families to claim ‘Trump Accounts’”. Not anonymous, and a very unfortunate name, but a staggering amount that compensates for both of those things.

Both are interesting in the context of this The Nation pod, “Liberal Philanthropy and the Fight for Democracy“. Sentence-long summary, “As powerbrokers of the elite, liberal philanthropists are averse to challenging ‘the systems that spawned them.'” One does not have to be as far left as the typical The Nation reader/listener to conclude that we’re far too dependent on the capriciousness (and ego) of the oligarchy for the infrastructure and safety nets we desperately need. What we need is the the dependability of a more progressive tax structure.

Yours truly just sold some AAPL purchased in 2011. The initial investment was small, but the shares appreciated over 2,000% in the fourteen years, resulting in a large sum. Which I will now gift to several nonprofits.

In revealing that, I’ve violated my fave philanthropic move, remaining anonymous. And, I’ve also sidestepped considerable capital gain taxes.

I can live with those demerits because I do not aspire to be in any pantheon of modern-day philanthropists. My aim is simpler. It’s to honor the memory of those who’ve been generous with me and to transmute the incredible luck I’ve had as an investor into tangible contributions to the common good.

Apple’s Next Breakthrough

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Vision Pro. John Gruber, of Daring Fireball, is the rare “Elements of Style” writer who says things simply and succinctly. Vision Pro’s importance is evident in what may be his longest post ever.

Quite literally, for AAPL investors, here’s the money paragraph.

“But I can recommend buying Vision Pro solely for use as a personal theater. I paid $5,000 for my 77-inch LG OLED TV a few years ago. Vision Pro offers a far more compelling experience (including far more compelling spatial surround sound). You’d look at my TV set and almost certainly agree that it’s a nice big TV. But watching movies in the Disney+ and TV apps will make you go “Wow!” These are experiences I never imagined I’d be able to have in my own home (or, say, while flying across the country in an airplane).”

Fast forwarding to Gruber’s final paragraphs:

“Spatial computing in VisionOS is the real deal. It’s a legit productivity computing platform right now, and it’s only going to get better. It sounds like hype, but I truly believe this is a landmark breakthrough like the 1984 Macintosh and the 2007 iPhone.

But if you were to try just one thing using Vision Pro — just one thing — it has to be watching a movie in the TV app, in theater mode. Try that, and no matter how skeptical you were beforehand about the Vision Pro’s price tag, your hand will start inching toward your wallet.”

If you know Gruber’s work, you know it’s not hype. However, the question Gruber and his fellow tech analysts never seem to get around to is whether it will improve our quality of life. Based on Gruber’s review, maybe it will if what’s keeping you from living a more fulfilling life is the unsatisfying quality of your home television and movie watching experience.

The Only AAPL Warning Sign That Really Freaks Me Out

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Apple’s shares slipped more than 3% in after-hours trading following last Thursday’s earnings call. Even worser, AAPL was also down Friday despite the fact that the broader market surged both Thursday and Friday.

When it comes to AAPL, I happily and knowingly break conventional personal finance wisdom that says never have more than 5% of your total invested assets in any individual stock.

Over the last fifteen years, I’ve learned to chuckle at the doubters. Chuckleheads all.

But what if I am right, until I am wrong? Maybe a little humility is in order? Maybe AAPL isn’t always going to make the personal tech of choice? If so, maybe I should pay attention to the “headwinds”.

The Wall Street Journal on Apple:

“. . . the stock already had been underperforming its big tech peers lately. Concerns were mounting over the new iPhone cycle and longer-term issues like the health of the China market and the company’s lucrative relationship with Google, which pays Apple billions of dollars every year to be the default search engine on the iPhone and other devices. That relationship is at the center of an antitrust trial against Google that has now lasted two months.

The case is a long way from resolution. China, however, is a more pressing issue. Apple’s revenue for its Greater China segment fell nearly 3% year over year compared with a 6% rise in last year’s fiscal fourth quarter. That brought China’s contribution to Apple’s total revenue to its lowest point in nearly three years. . . . Data from market research firm Counterpoint suggests the iPhone has lost momentum in China to a newly resurgent Huawei, though.”

Also, what about the anecdotal? A year ago the family had the nerve to suggest Spotify was better than Apple Music. Eventually, to save money by partnering with the GalPal, I caved and gave it a whirl. And you know what, don’t tell them, but they were right.

In related news, the sensor on the back of my Apple watch cracked. It still mostly works (no sleep data, heart rate, etc.), but I’m thinking of replacing it. And I’m leaning towards a Garmin Venu 3 or Garmin 265 because one charge lasts at least one week. How to make sense of the masses preference for Apple’s for-shits battery life? By acknowledging the company’s marketing genius.

But I digress. Back to the one, mother and father of all, AAPL warning signs. And I quote the recent CNBC headline that stopped me in my Apple track.

Jim Cramer lauds Apple’s ‘lifetime customer,’ says analysts are too negative on the company.

Harvard educated Jim Cramer is the single worst “stock guru” in the mainstream media. Yes, his television persona attracts eyeballs, but any primate throwing darts at a stock chart would outperform him.

John Oliver said it better than I ever could, “Cramer is the only person who could look you in the eye and say you are going to die tomorrow, and give you an immediate sense of calm knowing that you’re going to live for another 50 years.”

Hard to top that, but Ian Krietzberg says Cramer has been wrong so often “that Matthew Tuttle, the CEO and investment lead of Tuttle Capital Management, decided to create an ETF designed to short Jim Cramer.”

Tuttle for the win.

Maybe I should sell some AAPL and use the proceeds to buy an equal amount of SJIM.

Apple Does It Again

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Wednesday’s Apple event was just the most recent reminder that when it comes to marketing, everyone else is competing for the red ribbon or the silver medal or the consolation bracket title. They are the LA Dodgers. Best in class and it ain’t close.

They’re so good they are going to convince a huge cross-section of the population that they need something they’ve been fine without their whole lives–satellite coverage in case of a car crash or other emergency. Hell, when we crashed our cars and got lost in nature before we had cell phones we were almost always fine. There were pay phones, people assisting one another, smoke signals.

Now, Apple is amping up everyone’s anxiety with a bunch of WHAT IFs with infinitesimal odds. And I have no doubt it’s going to work. Sometime soon, people will question your sanity if you venture into your car or the woods without satellite coverage.

And because Apple is going to leverage your anxiety so expertly, my AAPL stock is going to keep increasing in value. Thank you in advance.

The ‘Can’t Miss’ Investment I Missed

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Dammit. I wish someone had pulled me aside at a dinner party when I was in my early 20’s.

And told me the two words that could’ve changed my life. Self-storage. Apart from AAPL, I double dog dare you to find a better investment.

From this week’s Wall Street Journal:

“Self-storage pulled ahead of other property types in the reopening trade as the real-estate business rebounded this year during the easing of pandemic restrictions.

The storage facilities around the country have brought the biggest returns to investors in public real-estate stocks this year. Many people moved, and for those who stayed put, a desire to have more space in their homes because of remote learning and working also spurred demand for self-storage.

As of June 30, total returns from self-storage real-estate investment trusts reached 36%. . . . Over the same period, the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index gained 22% and the S&P 500 climbed 15%.

People generally haven’t been able to tame their consumerism, increasing the need for storage space. The self-storage industry sees demand when people’s lives are disrupted, such as relocating for a new job, marriage, divorce and education.

‘Self-storage thrives when people experience change, and Covid disrupted norms across all generations,’ said Drew Dolan, principal at DXD Capital, a self-storage developer and investor. He added that many customers who needed self-storage in 2020 were first-time customers.

Operators moved quickly during the pandemic to offer customers more choices for reservation and move-ins, including online rental agreements and kiosks that limited contact with other people.

‘What used to be a 45-minute transaction can now be a six-minute experience,’ said Natalia N. Johnson, chief administrative officer of Public Storage, in a recent presentation to investors.” 

“People haven’t been able to tame their consumerism.” My vote for understatement of the year, decade, century. I should’ve bet big on American consumers not taming their consumerism years ago. I coulda, shoulda made bank on your neighbors’ conspicuous consumption.

No it’s not too late, but the crazy recent gains have to moderate, don’t they?

Weekend Assorted Links

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1. Jia Tolentino on “The Pitfalls and Potential of the New Minimalism.” Strong opening paragraph.

“The new literature of minimalism is full of stressful advice. Pack up all your possessions, unpack things only as needed, give away everything that’s still packed after a month. Or wake up early, pick up every item you own, and consider whether or not it sparks joy. See if you can wear just thirty-three items of clothing for three months. Know that it’s possible to live abundantly with only a hundred possessions. Don’t organize—purge. Digitize your photos. Get rid of the things you bought to impress people. Downsize your apartment. Think constantly about what will enable you to live the best life possible. Never buy anything on sale.”

2. Goldendoodle has new purpose.

3. A not so genius move. I feel really badly for him.

“Six years ago to the day, a pre-presidential Donald Trump said on Twitter that he sold his Apple shares, complaining about the fact that the company at the time didn’t sell an iPhone with a smaller screen. Assuming Apple’s post-earnings stock gains holds through the open of the markets on Wednesday, its price will have gone up 356% from the day of Trump’s tweet in 2014.”

4. San Fransisco bans cars on Market Street.

“San Francisco’s car-free move is part of a wave of cities around the globe pedestrianizing their downtown cores and corridors, from New York City to Madrid to Birmingham. And there are signs that SF’s effort will not end at Market Street: Local officials in the city are calling to remove cars from other sections of the city.”

5. An interview with the woman who wrote the viral 1,000 word job listing for a “Household Manager/Cook/Nanny”. $35-$40/hour to river swim? I’m in.

The Best and Worst of Times

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Excellent jobs report. Stock market records. Homelessness seemingly on the rise. When it comes to the (dis)United States economy, there are distinct winners and losers.

Eleven months ago, I bought a couple shares of AAPL for $142. Today, they are worth $270.

A few days ago I went to our downtown depository of knowledge to pick up a book I had requested. A man, middle class looking, was doing the same. Looks can be deceptive.

He informed the librarian that he “had some money” and wanted to pay some of what he owed. “Oh,” the librarian said somewhat surprised, “you have some money.” He fiddled around in his velcro wallet and pulled out a small tangled wad of $1’s. “What’s my debt?” he asked. “$5.35,” the librarian said. “Okay, I’ll pay $2 of that.”

 

Think Differently

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PressingPausers have proven to have little interest in personal finance. Correction. PressingPausers have proven to have little interest in my thoughts on personal finance. Big dif. So why do I persist? Idk.

Just like getting dressed in the morning while on sabbatical, the fact that NO ONE will read this is liberating. Whatever shorts and t-shirt I left splayed on the floor last night are good, not many peeps are going to see me anyways as I write a blog post NO ONE will read. If a blog post falls in the woods. . .

Classic investing advice is to keep investing expenses to a bare minimum; determine what balance of stock, bonds, and cash will enable you to sleep well at night; and keep trading to a bare minimum.

In the US, investors currently have 56% of their assets invested in stocks or more than 10 percentage points higher than its historical average of 45.3%. At the top of the bull market in 2007, it stood at 56.8%. This has a lot of analysts worried that a correction is coming.

Another investing maxim of increasing popularity is to stop trying to outsmart the market. Instead, as Kendrick Lamar advises, “Be humble!” His next vid will prolly be about investing in passive index funds like this. The chorus. . .”Be passive!”

Another oft-repeated investing maxim is never invest more than 5% of your net worth in any individual stock because they’re far too volatile. A mutual fund or exchange traded fund is a basket of hundreds or thousands of individual stocks that go up and down at different times, thus creating a smoother, steadier, long term increase in value.

But damn is AAPL en fuego. Check this missive from a Vanguard forum of knowledgeable investors I’ve taken to reading recently. Wait a minute. That last sentence presumed you’re reading this, which you’re not, so note to self—revise that. This missive from a Vanguard forum of knowledgeable investors has me thinking about chucking conventional investing wisdom and improvising like #3.

“Hi—
Long time lurker first time poster. Thank you to all who have contributed to my education here, absolutely invaluable.
I’m writing about my mother and father in law’s finances, which I am slowly taking over at their request.
FINANCIAL PICTURE
Savings
$425k in various super low interest checking / savings accounts
Investments at Fidelity (unlikely to change brokerages):
Rollover IRA: $675k of which
* 86.8% AAPL he’s a lifelong Apple fanboy, bought $11,500 worth way back when, which is now $575k.”

Hindsight is 20-20, but if I was my daughters age again, for every $2 dollars of savings I could set aside, I’d put $1 in a super safe certificate of deposit and the other in AAPL. And then rebalance annually and pay 15 or 20% on the capital gains. As the aforementioned anecdote intimates, I would’ve done really, really well adhering to this “barbell” plan.

But this way of thinking suggests I’m suffering from an advanced case of “optimism bias” which causes a person to believe that they are at a lesser risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. Note to self—AAPL can’t continue its recent run. VTI is a much safer, wiser, long-term instrument for building wealth. VTI is also long overdue for a serious correction, or to use the fancy pants mathematical phrase, a regression towards the mean. It’s as certain as the Mariner’s August playoff fade.

Sometime soon, the half of the barbell holding certificates of deposit earning 3-4% is going to bring great comfort.